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Do y'all think SM was waiting for Twice to pass their peak? (1 Viewer)

JakeyWantsCakey

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Before debuting aespa?

Don't get me wrong, Twice is undoubtedly the current No.1 girl group in Korea but every group has their years of peak relevance and I feel like Twice's is starting to come to an end. Obviously, I'm not saying that they are over or anything or that they're gonna have some huge decline but I do kind of feel like as they mature and go in a different direction there is inevitably going to be another girl group that comes along and fills that gap in the market that early Twice had a hold on. With the other major companies like SM, YG & BigHit all set to debut new girl groups in the next year or two, not to mention the girl group boom that is set to take place after IZ*ONE disband, is it possible that people within the industry are getting ready to fill that gap?

Don't ask me why but I just have this feeling like the battle for "Queens of the 4th Gen" is about to begin...​
 

VillageIdiot

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It looks like it, considering the B3 all debuted their 3rd gen ggs when 21,GG and WG were well into their decline. Doesn't hurt that Itzy has proven very unstable success and G idles growth is fluctuating as well. There is no dominating rookie rn

However, even if they wanted Twice to decline first, BP has swept in to fill that void almost instantly.
 
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This is something that I don´t like about kpop as an industry..... it is so instant. One moment you are hip, the other you are too old and it all happens within a couple of years. It is kind of sad. Good luck to the youngsters, I suppose. I have never been much of the girl groups fan, but I hope Twice have enough fans to keep them going :).
 

JakeyWantsCakey

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This is something that I don´t like about kpop as an industry..... it is so instant. One moment you are hip, the other you are too old and it all happens within a couple of years. It is kind of sad. Good luck to the youngsters, I suppose. I have never been much of the girl groups fan, but I hope Twice have enough fans to keep them going :).
They definitely will. I feel like they’re probably set for life at this point anyway but I feel like they’re good for at least two more years...
 

VillageIdiot

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This is something that I don´t like about kpop as an industry..... it is so instant. One moment you are hip, the other you are too old and it all happens within a couple of years. It is kind of sad. Good luck to the youngsters, I suppose. I have never been much of the girl groups fan, but I hope Twice have enough fans to keep them going :).
Hopefully we start seeing the desperately needed solo projects instead of non stop comebacks. JYPs exhausted the fandom and the girls, hence why Twice is declining like this
 

JakeyWantsCakey

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Hopefully we start seeing the desperately needed solo projects instead of non stop comebacks. JYPs exhausted the fandom and the girls, hence why Twice is declining like this
Are they actually declining though? I don’t pay attention to the numbers tbh..
 

VillageIdiot

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And then there's YG 4th gen GG as well, if they are ever gonna debut one who will most likely battle with SM
I'm skeptical of how successful they'll be.
Are they actually declining though? I don’t pay attention to the numbers tbh..
Since Feel Special and it's getting worse every comeback. The J sales are falling because JYP milks Jonces too much and ICSM is struggling to stay in the teens on Melon
 
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I feel like TWICE is in a strange place. In terms of monetary value & overall success they are at the top but their hip girl group days due seem to be ending. I wonder if JYP has plans to address that or plans to make sure they have stable longevity.

BP seems to be entering a new peak in popularity and sales, mainly because of the new frontier of the Western market & the release of their “album”. Personally I think it has more to do with the latter and YG will soon return to 1 comeback a year but with expanded individual activities. This will give ample breathing room for 4th GG to rise.

So yes late 2020 and 2021 are perfect years to debut a new girl group to lead the 4th Gen. ITZY & Gidle are great but compared to the tremendous gains of the 3rd Gen top GG at the same time in their careers. They aren’t hitting it as big, constant, or growing as fast, especially in terms of having That Song it That Era. BP & Hwasa outperformed them a lot this year, something 2nd GG couldn’t have done to a hip 3rd GG. But there is still room for JYP & Cube to try something. We’ll see how ITZY & Gidle compare to SMNGG, YGNGG & BHNGG.
 

JakeyWantsCakey

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I feel like TWICE is in a strange place. In terms of monetary value & overall success they are at the top but their hip girl group days due seem to be ending. I wonder if JYP has plans to address that or plans to make sure they have stable longevity.

BP seems to be entering a new peak in popularity and sales, mainly because of the new frontier of the Western market & the release of their “album”. Personally I think it has more to do with the latter and YG will soon return to 1 comeback a year but with expanded individual activities. This will give ample breathing room for 4th GG to rise.

So yes late 2020 and 2021 are perfect years to debut a new girl group to lead the 4th Gen. ITZY & Gidle are great but compared to the tremendous gains of the 3rd Gen top GG at the same time in their careers. They aren’t hitting it as big, constant, or growing as fast, especially in terms of having That Song it That Era. BP & Hwasa outperformed them a lot this year, something 2nd GG couldn’t have done to a hip 3rd GG. But there is still room for JYP & Cube to try something. We’ll see how ITZY & Gidle compare to SMNGG, YGNGG & BHNGG.
I kind of see ITZY being the Red Velvet of the 4th gen, very successful but in the 3rd place out of the big 3...
 

Suzy

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These days all of your threads are in line with my thoughts... :zoomeyes:

Honestly after seeing TWICE’s results with their comeback and seeing their results for their last comeback, it’s clear they have passed their peak when it comes to public interest and it can’t be a coincidence that SM, who has been preparing this group for years now, kept pushing it until now.

Also, although there’s still BP, I don’t think their targets will overlap. BP is going more for the western market but judging by the teasers so far, it looks like SM is aiming for Korea/Asia since it doesn’t look like they’re going for a girl crush concept. So even though BP will block their way for a while in being #1 gg ww, I think the nation’s girl group spot is almost vacant now just in time for their debut. SM wanted their next group to follow in SNSD’s path anyway so I feel like they will promote them until they are.
 

JakeyWantsCakey

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These days all of your threads are in line with my thoughts... :zoomeyes:

Honestly after seeing TWICE’s results with their comeback and seeing their results for their last comeback, it’s clear they have passed their peak when it comes to public interest and it can’t be a coincidence that SM, who has been preparing this group for years now, kept pushing it until now.

Also, although there’s still BP, I don’t think their targets will overlap. BP is going more for the western market but judging by the teasers so far, it looks like SM is aiming for Korea/Asia since it doesn’t look like they’re going for a girl crush concept. So even though BP will block their way for a while in being #1 gg ww, I think the nation’s girl group spot is almost vacant now just in time for their debut. SM wanted their next group to follow in SNSD’s path anyway so I feel like they will promote them until they are.
First off, great minds think alike :icgyu:

Secondly, I don't necessarily think the title of National Girl Group is up for grabs just yet, Twice might not be charting as well but I think they are still very much loved as a group and I think there will have to be some type of scandal or a member leaving before they can be replaced in that regard like SNSD had Jessica leave and then the Korean Independence Day controversy with Tiffany.
 
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Izone wont disband, just so mnet can mess with everyone some more :) .

But i do not think any 2 kids are going to make a super group coming out of izone. If someone can sign the 01's as a group and add 2-4 others that might have a shot. Since it is unlikely that a long term extension is happening.
 

JakeyWantsCakey

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Izone wont disband, just so mnet can mess with everyone some more :) .

But i do not think any 2 kids are going to make a super group coming out of izone. If someone can sign the 01's as a group and add 2-4 others that might have a shot. Since it is unlikely that a long term extension is happening.
You have a point but there is always the possibility that one of them could break the post PD101 curse lol
 
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Itzy feels miss a like, not a leader like WG.
the other contenders are popular INT but not so much in Korea.

I can not really speak to twice or their arc atm but they have had just an insane run numbers wise.
Highly unlikely bp will get close to the physical numbers they just will never have the content.

Twice could call it a day and be fine, not that they will but unlike snsd JYP does not seem to have a plan almost like with WG.
 

JakeyWantsCakey

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Itzy feels miss a like, not a leader like WG.
the other contenders are popular INT but not so much in Korea.

I can not really speak to twice or their arc atm but they have had just an insane run numbers wise.
Highly unlikely bp will get close to the physical numbers they just will never have the content.

Twice could call it a day and be fine, not that they will but unlike snsd JYP does not seem to have a plan almost like with WG.
Yep, JYP always seem to drop the ball when it comes to longevity, Twice could really do with a solo or unit debut soon plus maybe just one EPIC comeback next year just to start making their group promotions feel more a special event.
 

Suzy

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First off, great minds think alike :icgyu:

Secondly, I don't necessarily think the title of National Girl Group is up for grabs just yet, Twice might not be charting as well but I think they are still very much loved as a group and I think there will have to be some type of scandal or a member leaving before they can be replaced in that regard like SNSD had Jessica leave and then the Korean Independence Day controversy with Tiffany.
I must not have worded myself properly. I don't think Twice has lost the position of nations girl group yet, but I think they're in the same position SNSD was before Twice did take over. So they're still probably the girl group with the biggest fandom in Korea (unless BP's fandom has surpassed them in the country) and everyone acknowledges them but I think that the Korean general public is also ready to accept a new nation's girl group. They're in an unsteady position but if they managed to solidify their fandom, they'll be fine like SNSD for a very long time. I think it's time for JYP to start promoting them individually though.

Also I don't think it was those scandals alone that let Twice replace SNSD as the NGG. Even though their albums were selling well, their songs were not doing as well on the charts. Those scandals just kind of messed things up with their line-up which is when they started to stop releasing music as regularly. But even before that their songs weren't doing all that great with the public. And in my opinion, the public not streaming their music anymore is the biggest indication that they're ready to move on.
 

JakeyWantsCakey

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I must not have worded myself properly. I don't think Twice has lost the position of nations girl group yet, but I think they're in the same position SNSD was before Twice did take over. So they're still probably the girl group with the biggest fandom in Korea (unless BP's fandom has surpassed them in the country) and everyone acknowledges them but I think that the Korean general public is also ready to accept a new nation's girl group. They're in an unsteady position but if they managed to solidify their fandom, they'll be fine like SNSD for a very long time. I think it's time for JYP to start promoting them individually though.

Also I don't think it was those scandals alone that let Twice replace SNSD as the NGG. Even though their albums were selling well, their songs were not doing as well on the charts. Those scandals just kind of messed things up with their line-up which is when they started to stop releasing music as regularly. But even before that their songs weren't doing all that great with the public. And in my opinion, the public not streaming their music anymore is the biggest indication that they're ready to move on.
True but I have to say that I think Twice still have potential to have another huge hit, it's just a question of whether or not JYP will give it to them...
 

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