numbers in prep for my gp 999 guess. (1 Viewer)

[RandAlThor]

ok here are the results of 1C 1K 1J voting.

Also run the number a single k vote is worth upwards of 10 int votes in the point mess.

The problem with this format is when you force ppl to pick more than they want the results are pretty much useless for who is solo popular.
Similar to Mama where you used to have to vote for all categories.

Instead what tends to happen if folks game the voting in some way.
Here its pretty clear. Particularly for the j 4 and Xiaoting that folks were attempting to put all the votes in a clump for C and J to leave more room for k girls' to make the top 17.
Dayeon i think got similar treatment from Korean votes who are one picking j or K

The point of all that is what we have is potentially a very very very false pattern set up.

For sure I do not remotely believe that Xiaoting is any where near this level of popularity over the field. especially among K voters.
If ya had a gun to my head i would say the most popular C trainee in Korea is one of the x's and Xingqiao is strong.

i would also say that the K votes Ruqi and the rest of C group have are a solid k fanbase.

Next the OOO mission view counts.

this is important since there was a single person reward on the line for each team.
ie if your girls was at risk big points here.
Tellingly all 3 went to K group girls which was surprising.
Yujin -
Bahiyyih
Youngeun
Yujins was enough to move her up a rank. The other 2 it had no impact.


if this video is correct then the rankings are really hammered.

1. Bahiyyih first and those views are likely heavy from female fans of txt. very committed. 426k
2. Yujin next 399 k
3. Hikaru next at 295 k
4. Youngeun at 292k
5. Mashiro at 239k
6. Dayeon at 220 k ( this surprised me as i would think she would be getting less attention for the insane angel edits and screen time)
7. Yaning at 209 k
8. Xiaoting at 193 k
9. Yeseo at 186k
10. Ruiqi at 171k
11. Chaehyun at 164K
12. Yurina at 156k
13. Suyeon at 134k ( and this was a girl clearly on the edge she made it by 4000 points which she got from the U + Me = love win)
14. Cai Bing at 117 k
15. Bora at 112k
16. Shana at 109k
17. Ruan at 82k
18. Manami at 81k
19. Ririka at 73k
20. kotone at 66k
21. May at 53k
22. Hsinwei at 53k -- this number make me think she had solid a k voting base, similar to
23. Xingqiao at 48 k
24. Whenze at 47 k
25. Xinyu at 36k

Myah is not on the list wierd. the list skipped 18 so lets put her there at 81k

typically voters vote for their country s reps. ( why i still believe it was a bad day for j trainee's in pd 48 Sakura did not get first)

This paints a picture combined with the above of
Yujin pushing for center
Hikaru
Youngeun
Mashiro
Dayeon
Chaehyun
Xaioting


and 2 more slots
Koreans Yeseo and Bora or Bahiyyih i am treating Bora different from the C trainees with low K votes as i more sure those are a floor.
Ruiqi Yaning and Yurina are all in the mix for.

There are several wild cards.

Non followers who tune in for the final tend to go for talent or pretty.

How the live vote is handled thru text (favoring K group ) or the app.

 

[RandAlThor]

Cnet predictions .

 

[RandAlThor]

well ouch

i did not think this bad i was leaning 6 2 1




This was the interim rankings
ie 1-8 k girls ruiqi in ninth.

wiki has em all
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Girls_Planet_999_contestants

 

[RandAlThor]

Depending on the live vote pushing Bora. since random folks watching pick for skill quite often.

Yujin getting more int votes to cover C's Korean votes.

Hikaru may be a bit high but really think she is going to get pushed hard.

i would not want HB just because she has done nothing to stand out just kept her head down and worked the name.
But she has a boat load of fans who think she great, and they are teen girls used to supporting a bg. (....so, driven :) )
Sohye, YCY, and Hyewon had strong strong arcs and stepped up to do stuff.

I think unless mnet really plays with the voting 5 or 6 is min K group and they probably want at least 5.
also history of produce in Korea tells us a young group IZONE was actually older than IOI.
This group will be older still judging from the pool of girls available.
That aside I would like a less gc mix.
not ordered lists btw.
Yujin
Chaehyun
Youngeun
Bora
Yeseo
Hikaru
Mashiro
Ruiqi
and Shauna or Yurina.

best guess on who will make it.
Depending on what live vote rules they go with. If they do 7 x again wow.
Also any more reveals will have big impact. pd 101 both made it and Chungha went to 4. pd 48 Chowon went to 6(just to show the power of the reveal) and we have to assume it saved Hitomi and Chaewon.
If its still super heavy K group (7 or more) expect mnet to do every legal thing they can to get some C and J girls in.
Even down to planet passes.

Yujin
Chaehyun
Youngeun
Hikaru
Mashiro - i expect her to pick up jyp stans.
Dayeon
Bahiyyih
2 of Yeseo/ Yurina/Xiaoting
Trying to save Xiaoting and Yurina is going to drop the other C girls int votes and they already had bottom 4 k votes.

let the odds ever be in their favor.


i was close..
Yurina just did much worse than i thought.