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1) (G)I-DLE - They are doing super well right now and I can see them becoming one of the legendary groups of the current generation is the future but they give me major 2NE1 vibes and for that reason I don't think they are gonna do any better than second place. I feel like they're fighting a uphill battle coming from a non-Big 3/4 company and I don't think they have the type of personalities that are gonna capture the GP and get them that National Girl Group title...
2) ITZY - They came out of the gates with a big hit song and have done pretty well ever since but I feel like Not Shy was kind of a lacklustre comeback for them plus they debuted first out of all of the major companies' new girl groups which I feel like kind of puts them at a little disadvantage since they are probably gonna hit their peak first and then slow down by the time the others really hit it big. Then you have the fact that JYP is also home to the current Nation's Girl Group, Twice and JYP have clearly set ITZY up for a different career trajectory and therefore the likelihood of them ever being top dog is kind of small...
3) aespa - It's super hard to tell right now because we don't even know what their music is even going to sound like or how well their avatar concept is going to work out for them or even how many members there are going to be because the rumours keep changing but I kind of think that they are gonna have a similar trajectory as NCT to be honest. I feel like people are gonna complain about their concept for the first few years and say how complicated it is and then eventually everyone is gonna get used to it and they'll probably make SM a ton of money. However, I do think SM are focusing of creating fandom over public recognition so I don't know whether they're ever gonna have a national hit or not...
4) YGNGG - This is obviously the most speculatory because we know the least about them but there has been a steady outpouring of new info over the past week which is the same thing that started to happen in the run up to aespa's teasers dropping plus there are rumours of member intros dropping as soon as December of this year plus it has been a consistent rumour since like 2017 that YG's new boy group & girl group would debut one after the other in quick succession and we've just gotten Treasure's debut this year.
I feel like concept wise they're either gonna go one of two ways, either cuter and more public friendly which I don't know will work since the Korean GP still hates YG as a company as can be seen by Treasure's poor charting OR they can go the complete opposite and make a darker, more tomboyish type of group like Billie Eilish in kpop form either way it's hard to predict where they are gonna place right now...
5) BHNGG - To be honest, these girls are gonna be my pick for the next National Girl Group! The team in charge of making them seems to be super solid with the woman that used to be the Creative Director at SM, SouMu AND Big Hit. They have the advantage of being BTS' first little sister group that ARMYs have been BEGGING for, for YEARS plus the Korean GP have a lot of national pride in BTS and BigHit right now so they are sure to be keeping an eye out for the girls. All Bang PD has to do is select girls with enough star quality to capture the public's hearts and make sure to give them a chart friendly sound and they are set!
2) ITZY - They came out of the gates with a big hit song and have done pretty well ever since but I feel like Not Shy was kind of a lacklustre comeback for them plus they debuted first out of all of the major companies' new girl groups which I feel like kind of puts them at a little disadvantage since they are probably gonna hit their peak first and then slow down by the time the others really hit it big. Then you have the fact that JYP is also home to the current Nation's Girl Group, Twice and JYP have clearly set ITZY up for a different career trajectory and therefore the likelihood of them ever being top dog is kind of small...
3) aespa - It's super hard to tell right now because we don't even know what their music is even going to sound like or how well their avatar concept is going to work out for them or even how many members there are going to be because the rumours keep changing but I kind of think that they are gonna have a similar trajectory as NCT to be honest. I feel like people are gonna complain about their concept for the first few years and say how complicated it is and then eventually everyone is gonna get used to it and they'll probably make SM a ton of money. However, I do think SM are focusing of creating fandom over public recognition so I don't know whether they're ever gonna have a national hit or not...
4) YGNGG - This is obviously the most speculatory because we know the least about them but there has been a steady outpouring of new info over the past week which is the same thing that started to happen in the run up to aespa's teasers dropping plus there are rumours of member intros dropping as soon as December of this year plus it has been a consistent rumour since like 2017 that YG's new boy group & girl group would debut one after the other in quick succession and we've just gotten Treasure's debut this year.
I feel like concept wise they're either gonna go one of two ways, either cuter and more public friendly which I don't know will work since the Korean GP still hates YG as a company as can be seen by Treasure's poor charting OR they can go the complete opposite and make a darker, more tomboyish type of group like Billie Eilish in kpop form either way it's hard to predict where they are gonna place right now...
5) BHNGG - To be honest, these girls are gonna be my pick for the next National Girl Group! The team in charge of making them seems to be super solid with the woman that used to be the Creative Director at SM, SouMu AND Big Hit. They have the advantage of being BTS' first little sister group that ARMYs have been BEGGING for, for YEARS plus the Korean GP have a lot of national pride in BTS and BigHit right now so they are sure to be keeping an eye out for the girls. All Bang PD has to do is select girls with enough star quality to capture the public's hearts and make sure to give them a chart friendly sound and they are set!